Energy Vault Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryHeavy Electrical Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.16 Intrinsic Value $3.61median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $3.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $707.4M Enterprise Value $857.3M Shares Outstanding 180.4M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Energy Vault is successfully transitioning from a pure-play technology provider and EPC contractor to a vertically integrated energy infrastructure platform (Independent Power Producer) through its Asset Vault subsidiary. This strategic pivot, combined with an early-mover advantage in providing sustainable power solutions for AI and data center compute infrastructure, positions the company to capture highly predictable, recurring, and high-margin tolling and PPA revenue streams. Backed by a record $1.35 billion contracted backlog and a strong balance sheet bolstered by recent non-dilutive financing, Energy Vault offers a compelling growth profile at an attractive valuation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$2.50 Mean target$5.53 High · most bullish analyst$8.15 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.0020% Project execution delays, supply chain bottlenecks in battery deliveries, or higher-than-expected capital expenditures prolong the path to profitability. Persistent net losses and cash burn pressure liquidity, forcing reliance on dilutive capital markets. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.2550% Energy Vault executes on its reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $225M-$300M, successfully deploys $75M-$100M of internal Asset Vault projects, and maintains steady progress on its $1.35B backlog. The transition to an IPP model continues to improve earnings visibility and gross margins. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.0030% Rapid acceleration of AI data center partnerships and faster-than-expected commercialization of the Asset Vault portfolio drive recurring revenues to the high end of guidance. Gravity storage technology gains widespread global adoption, and the company achieves positive Adjusted EBITDA ahead of consensus expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |