Energy Transfer LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $25.52median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$100based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $20.10Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $69.2B Enterprise Value $136.6B Shares Outstanding 3.4B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Energy Transfer's second-quarter results support a positive income-and-growth thesis: Adjusted EBITDA increased 31% year over year to $5.066 billion, adjusted distributable cash flow attributable to partners increased 32% to $2.587 billion, management raised FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $18.8-$19.1 billion, and the partnership declared its nineteenth consecutive quarterly distribution increase. The principal offsets are a $5.6-$5.9 billion growth-capital program, substantial debt, execution and regulatory exposure, and the possibility that favorable commodity spreads and optimization margins normalize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.00 Mean target$24.48 High · most bullish analyst$27.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.0020% The bear case assumes Adjusted EBITDA falls below guidance as favorable commodity spreads and optimization gains normalize, major projects experience delays or cost overruns, and elevated capital needs or debt-service demands constrain distribution growth. A distribution reduction would materially weaken the income thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $24.4855% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA remains within the revised $18.8-$19.1 billion range, growth capital remains within $5.6-$5.9 billion, recently completed and developing projects ramp broadly as expected, and the quarterly distribution is maintained or increased modestly. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.0025% The bull case assumes Energy Transfer delivers near or above the high end of revised FY2026 guidance, the Hugh Brinson ramp and planned NGL-export investments enter service on schedule, record NGL and crude volumes persist, and long-term transportation and fractionation agreements convert the capital program into durable fee-based cash flow. Continued quarterly distribution increases would reinforce total-return support. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |