Endeavour Silver Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Endeavour Silver Corp

EDRToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustrySilver

Beta (adjusted)1.97

Intrinsic Value $6.42median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $8.56Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.5B

Enterprise Value $2.3B

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Endeavour Silver is undergoing a structural transformation from a high-cost, mid-tier producer into a larger, more diversified, and lower-cost silver miner. This transition is driven by the successful ramp-up of the flagship Terronera mine in Mexico (which achieved commercial production in late 2025) and the integration of the newly acquired Kolpa mine in Peru. The company offers the highest beta and price sensitivity to silver among its peers, with approximately 69% of its revenue derived directly from silver. With the imminent expiration of its restrictive zero-cost silver collar on June 30, 2026, Endeavour is poised to unlock significant cash flow flexibility, allowing it to fully capitalize on robust precious metals prices.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$14.00

Mean target$15.50

High · most bullish analyst$17.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$14.0015%

The bear case is triggered by persistent operational bottlenecks or inflationary pressures at the newly online Terronera and Kolpa mines, keeping consolidated AISC elevated above $35/oz. A sharp correction in spot silver prices below $25/oz would severely compress margins, while delays in obtaining the tailing storage facility permit for Pitarrilla (expected in Q1 2027) would push back the next leg of organic growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$15.5060%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case is built on the successful execution of the company's 2026 guidance, targeting 14.6 to 15.6 million ounces of silver equivalent production. Terronera continues its steady ramp-up, shifting into higher-grade zones in H2 2026 to bring consolidated AISC down from Q1's elevated $37.03/oz toward the full-year target of $27.00 to $28.00/oz. The Kolpa mine successfully completes its plant expansion to 2,500 tpd, providing stable base-metal by-product credits. Valuation is supported by a consensus target price of $14.50, representing significant upside from current trading levels.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$17.0025%

The bull case assumes sustained silver prices above $75/oz, rapid optimization of the Terronera mine to its nameplate capacity of 2,000 tpd at negative cash costs, and a highly favorable feasibility study for the massive Pitarrilla project in Q3 2026. The expiration of the silver collar on June 30, 2026, immediately reopens cash flow flexibility, adding an estimated $25 million in annualized cash flow. Exploration success at Terronera's La Luz system continues to extend high-grade mineralization, pointing to substantial mine-life extensions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Industry-leading leverage to silver prices, with 69% of revenue derived from silver and a sector-leading 3-year beta of 2.20.
Transformational production growth of approximately 30% projected for 2026, driven by the first full year of Terronera and the integration of Kolpa.
Imminent cash flow catalyst with the expiration of the zero-cost silver collar on June 30, 2026.
Substantial long-term organic growth pipeline, anchored by the tier-one Pitarrilla project, one of the world's largest undeveloped silver deposits.

Key Investment Risks

Elevated near-term operating costs, with Q1 2026 consolidated AISC at $37.03 per ounce due to initial ramp-up inefficiencies and high royalties at Guanaceví.
Geographic concentration of core operating assets in Mexico, exposing the company to localized regulatory, permitting, and fiscal policy risks.
High capital expenditure requirements, with a budgeted 2026 capex of $157.8 million potentially straining free cash flow if metal prices decline.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of Terronera to transition to higher-grade ore zones in H2 2026, resulting in a material miss on full-year cost and production guidance.
A sustained drop in the market price of silver below the company's cash cost of production.
Severe permitting delays or regulatory blocks on the Pitarrilla project, particularly regarding the tailing storage facility permit expected in Q1 2027.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.