Enact Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Enact Holdings Inc

ACTNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance - Specialty

Beta (adjusted)0.66

Intrinsic Value $29.81median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $44.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $6.1B

Enterprise Value $6.4B

Shares Outstanding 139M diluted

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT) continues to demonstrate robust operational execution, high capital sufficiency, and a highly disciplined approach to risk management. The company's proprietary Rate360 pricing engine provides a strong competitive edge, allowing dynamic risk-adjusted pricing in a volatile mortgage rate environment. However, near-term upside is constrained by macroeconomic headwinds, including elevated mortgage rates and limited housing affordability, which suppress overall origination volumes. While Enact remains a highly attractive defensive compounder with a strong capital return program (targeting ~$500 million in 2026 capital returns via dividends and buybacks), the normalization of credit trends and rising incurred losses suggest that the stock is fairly valued at its current trading multiple.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$48.00

Mean target$50.20

High · most bullish analyst$53.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$48.0015%

A broader macroeconomic downturn or a sharp rise in unemployment leads to a material uptick in mortgage defaults and delinquencies. Incurred losses rise significantly, eroding underwriting margins and halting reserve releases. PMIERs capital sufficiency declines, forcing management to scale back share repurchases and dividend growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$50.2060%

Matches the consensus mean

Mortgage rates remain elevated and volatile, keeping housing affordability constrained and origination volumes muted. Enact maintains stable premium flows from its high-quality in-force book, supported by high persistency rates. Credit trends normalize gradually with modest increases in incurred losses, while the company successfully executes its planned $500 million capital return program, supporting a mid-teens ROE.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$53.0025%

A rapid decline in mortgage rates triggers a significant rebound in mortgage originations and refinance penetration, driving higher New Insurance Written (NIW). Concurrently, the U.S. housing market remains highly resilient with low unemployment, keeping delinquency rates near historic lows and allowing further reserve releases that boost EPS beyond consensus expectations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong capital position with a PMIERs sufficiency ratio of 162% ($1.9 billion above requirements) as of Q1 2026.
Robust capital return framework with a commitment to return approximately $500 million to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share buybacks.
Advanced risk selection and pricing capabilities driven by the proprietary Rate360 pricing engine.
High-quality investment portfolio primarily consisting of high-grade fixed-income securities with minimal exposure to alternative risk assets.

Key Investment Risks

Elevated mortgage rates and housing affordability constraints suppressing mortgage origination volumes and NIW growth.
Normalization of credit trends leading to higher incurred losses and loss ratios, which drag on underwriting profitability.
High concentration of ownership by Genworth Financial, which could influence corporate governance and capital allocation decisions.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp increase in the national unemployment rate that drives mortgage delinquencies significantly higher.
A material regulatory change to PMIERs capital requirements that reduces capital flexibility or forces capital conservation.
A severe decline in the persistency rate below 75%, which would accelerate the decay of the high-margin in-force book.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.