Emerald Holding Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Emerald Holding Inc

EEXNYSE

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryAdvertising Agencies

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $5.03Price as of 13 Jul 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $995.5M

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 197.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend21 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Emerald Holding, Inc. (NYSE: EEX) has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Apollo-managed funds for $5.03 per share in cash, representing a 42.1% premium to its unaffected share price. The transaction, which is expected to close in the second half of 2026, will combine Emerald with Questex, LLC to create a leading North American B2B experiential events and media platform. Given that the stock is trading extremely close to the acquisition price of $5.03 and Onex (holding over 90% of outstanding shares) has agreed to support the transaction, there is limited upside or downside, making a 'Hold' the most appropriate recommendation for current investors.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$5.03

Mean target$5.03

High · most bullish analyst$5.03

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The transaction fails due to unexpected regulatory hurdles or legal challenges. The stock price falls back to its unaffected trading level prior to the acquisition announcement.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The acquisition by Apollo Funds proceeds smoothly and closes in the second half of 2026. Stockholders receive the agreed-upon $5.03 per share in cash, and the company is successfully taken private.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Guaranteed cash exit at $5.03 per share, representing a significant premium over the historical trading range.
Strong backing from majority shareholder Onex, which owns over 90% of the outstanding shares and has agreed to vote in favor of the transaction.
Strategic combination with Questex will create a highly scaled B2B events platform with approximately 160 events.

Key Investment Risks

Transaction completion risk if regulatory approvals are delayed or blocked.
Opportunity cost of capital while waiting for the transaction to close in the second half of 2026.
Potential litigation from minority shareholders challenging the fairness of the transaction.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Termination of the merger agreement by either Apollo or Emerald.
Regulatory intervention blocking the combination of Emerald and Questex.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.