Emcor Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Emcor Group Inc

EMENYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConstruction & Engineering

Beta (adjusted)1.10

Intrinsic Value $808.11median of 6 methods · middle span $461-$1,721based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $769.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $33.9B

Shares Outstanding 44.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

EMCOR entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 19.8%, operating margin reached 10.6%, diluted EPS increased 34.8%, and remaining performance obligations rose 43.9% to $17.14 billion. Management also raised 2026 revenue and EPS guidance for a second consecutive quarter. These indicators support a favorable fundamental outlook, reinforced by the expanded electrical platform from Miller Electric and a more focused U.S. portfolio following the EMCOR UK sale.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$885.00

Mean target$1,033.29

High · most bullish analyst$1,200.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$885.0020%

Project starts or RPO conversion slow, scarce skilled labor and supply-chain or tariff pressure reduce productivity, and unfavorable project mix drives quarterly operating margin below 9%. A cut to the raised revenue-guidance range would materially weaken the thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,033.2955%

Matches the consensus mean

EMCOR executes within its raised 2026 revenue range of $20.00 billion-$20.50 billion and diluted-EPS range of $32.00-$33.25, while RPO growth moderates from an unusually strong level but remains positive. Margins remain resilient as project execution offsets labor, procurement, and mix pressures.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,200.0025%

RPO converts on schedule, mission-critical and infrastructure demand remains strong, Miller Electric contributes effectively, and operating margin remains near or above the second-quarter level. Revenue and EPS would then be positioned toward or above the upper ends of the raised 2026 guidance ranges.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record remaining performance obligations of $17.14 billion, up 43.9% year over year, provide substantial contracted-work visibility.
Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 19.8%, operating margin reached 10.6%, and diluted EPS increased 34.8%, demonstrating strong growth and execution.
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $20.00 billion-$20.50 billion and diluted-EPS guidance to $32.00-$33.25 after already raising both ranges in the first quarter.
Miller Electric expanded EMCOR's electrical and mission-critical capabilities, while the EMCOR UK sale sharpened the company's U.S. focus and provided capital for disciplined growth.

Key Investment Risks

Scarcity of skilled labor and productivity challenges could constrain project execution and pressure margins.
Supply-chain disruption, inflation, energy-cost volatility, and changes in trade policy or tariffs could increase material and operating costs.
Miller Electric integration may fail to produce the expected strategic benefits, revenue, EBITDA contribution, or future earnings accretion.
Project timing, customer-sector weakness, competition, and an unfavorable business or project mix could reduce RPO conversion and profitability.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.