Embraer SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Embraer SA ADR

EMBJ3B3 S.A. - Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.79

Intrinsic Value $69.30median of 6 methods · middle span $36-$395based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $74.09Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $13.2B

Enterprise Value $13.8B

Shares Outstanding 178M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Embraer combines record backlog, improving delivery execution and raised 2026 profitability and cash-flow guidance. The constructive view remains execution-sensitive because full-year aircraft targets require continued production scaling, headline free-cash-flow guidance excludes Eve, and published ADR targets range from US$65 to US$104.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$65.00

Mean target$85.33

High · most bullish analyst$104.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$65.0020%

The bear case assumes production or backlog-conversion execution falls short, one or more raised 2026 targets are missed, or cash requirements not captured by the free-cash-flow measure excluding Eve weigh on valuation. The US$65 target equals the minimum ADR target disclosed by Embraer's investor-relations page.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$85.3355%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes Embraer meets its 2026 aircraft-delivery ranges, delivers the raised 10.0%-10.6% adjusted EBIT margin and at least US$400 million of adjusted free cash flow excluding Eve, while the record US$34.5 billion backlog supports revenue visibility.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$104.0025%

The bull case assumes continued backlog conversion, delivery execution at or above guidance and sustained operating leverage after the 13.3% adjusted EBIT margin achieved in 2Q26. The US$104 target equals the maximum ADR target reported on Embraer's investor-relations analyst-coverage page.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The US$34.5 billion 2Q26 backlog was a seventh consecutive record and increased 16% year over year, with Commercial Aviation, Defense & Security, Executive Aviation, and Services & Support all contributing.
Second-quarter revenue reached US$2.2 billion, adjusted EBIT margin reached 13.3%, and management raised FY2026 adjusted EBIT-margin guidance to 10.0%-10.6% and adjusted free-cash-flow guidance excluding Eve to at least US$400 million.
Embraer delivered 65 aircraft in 2Q26 and 109 in 1H26, with first-half deliveries about 20% above 1H25, supporting evidence of progress in production leveling.

Key Investment Risks

Execution remains demanding: 2Q26 Commercial and Executive Aviation deliveries were 20 and 45 aircraft, respectively, versus full-year guidance of 80-85 and 160-170.
The adjusted free-cash-flow target explicitly excludes Eve, so it does not represent all cash demands associated with Embraer's consolidated strategic exposure.
Issuer-hosted ADR targets span US$65-US$104, indicating material uncertainty around execution and valuation outcomes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.