Embotelladora Andina SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Embotelladora Andina SA ADR

ANDINA-BSantiago Stock Exchange

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value $38.42median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $28.66Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.5B

Enterprise Value $708B

Shares Outstanding 157.8M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Embotelladora Andina S.A. (Coca-Cola Andina) is a highly resilient, leading beverage bottler in Latin America with franchise monopolies in Chile, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural changes in bottler agreements with The Coca-Cola Company, which provide greater visibility on capital returns. Despite regional macroeconomic headwinds, particularly in Argentina, Andina has demonstrated robust operational execution, margin expansion, and strong cash generation. Its defensive product portfolio, expanding digital sales channel (accounting for ~80% of revenues), and high returnable packaging mix provide a strong competitive moat. Furthermore, the stock offers an attractive dividend yield and trades at an undemanding valuation relative to its historical averages and global peers.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$26.05

Mean target$33.78

High · most bullish analyst$36.92

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$26.05

Severe macroeconomic deterioration and hyperinflation in Argentina, coupled with a sharp depreciation of the Brazilian Real and Argentine Peso, severely impact translated earnings in Chilean Pesos. Intense competitive pressures or sudden sugar/PET resin price spikes compress operating margins, forcing a reduction in capital expenditure and dividend payouts.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$33.78

Matches the consensus mean

Gradual volume recovery across key markets, supported by solid performance in Brazil and stable operations in Chile. The company successfully manages raw material cost pressures through disciplined pricing and revenue management. Capex remains focused on high-return returnable lines and cooling equipment, maintaining a healthy balance sheet with leverage around 1.2x EBITDA, supporting a steady dividend payout.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$36.92

A rapid economic recovery in Argentina combined with local currency stabilization drives significant volume growth and margin expansion. Accelerated adoption of digital platforms and returnable packaging formats further reduces distribution costs, leading to record-high EBITDA margins and a re-rating of the stock toward the high end of its historical valuation range.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong franchise monopoly for Coca-Cola trademark beverages across four key South American markets.
High defensive moat supported by a large share of refillable/returnable bottles, creating high barriers to entry.
Robust digital transformation with approximately 80% of revenues generated through digital platforms.
Solid balance sheet with moderate leverage (net debt at 1.2x adjusted EBITDA) and investment-grade credit ratings (BBB+/Baa1).

Key Investment Risks

Exposure to macroeconomic instability, high inflation, and currency devaluation in Argentina and Brazil.
Fluctuations in raw material prices, including sugar, PET resin, and aluminum.
Water scarcity risks in key operating regions, particularly in Chile, which could impact production capacities.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material adverse change in the franchise agreement terms with The Coca-Cola Company.
A prolonged economic collapse in Brazil and Argentina leading to multi-year volume declines.
Severe regulatory restrictions on single-use plastics or sugar taxes that significantly impair product margins.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.