Elme Communities Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryResidential REITs Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $2.48median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $1.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $156.4M Shares Outstanding 88.1M diluted Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Jan 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Elme Communities is in the final stages of executing its shareholder-approved Plan of Sale and Liquidation. Following the massive $1.6 billion portfolio sale in late 2025 and the subsequent $14.67 per share initial liquidating distribution in January 2026, the company is actively selling its remaining assets. The investment thesis is centered on the realization of the remaining estimated liquidating distributions of $2.07 to $2.35 per share, bringing the total estimated liquidation value to $16.74 - $17.02. Given that the stock is trading near its residual stub value, investors should hold to receive the final liquidating distributions as properties close. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$18.00 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Prolonged softening in the D.C. real estate market or transaction delays push property sales past mid-2026, increasing holding costs, legal fees, and administrative expenses, resulting in additional distributions at the low end of the estimated range ($2.07 per share). Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully closes the sales of its remaining properties (including Riverside Apartments and the two remaining D.C. properties) by mid-year 2026, pays off the remaining $288.5 million Term Loan, and distributes the remaining cash to shareholders near the midpoint of the updated guidance range ($2.21 per share) before dissolving in Q3 2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case centers on the successful execution of the Plan of Sale and Liquidation, where the remaining properties under contract (including Riverside Apartments at $250 million, and Elme Bethesda, The Kenmore, and 3801 Connecticut Avenue at $168 million in aggregate) close successfully without further price reductions or regulatory delays, allowing total liquidating distributions to reach the upper end of the estimated range of $16.41 to $16.61 per share. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |