Ellomay Capital Ltd Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryRenewable Electricity Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $18.06median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $22.41Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $308.8M Enterprise Value $611.2M Shares Outstanding 12.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Apr 2016 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ellomay Capital Ltd. is transitioning its portfolio to focus heavily on core European solar PV assets following the major monetization of its indirect stake in Dorad Energy for NIS 559.8 million in May 2026. While this transaction significantly strengthens the balance sheet and enables the early redemption of NIS 170 million in Series E Secured Debentures, the company's near-term profitability remains highly sensitive to volatile merchant electricity prices in Spain and Italy, as evidenced by the Q1 2026 net loss of €12.2 million. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in northern Israel have halted construction at the Manara Cliff pumped storage project. A Hold recommendation is advised until merchant pricing stabilizes and construction at Manara resumes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.50 Prolonged security issues in northern Israel lead to indefinite delays or cost overruns at the Manara Cliff project. Merchant electricity prices in Spain and Italy remain depressed or negative during peak solar generation hours, leading to continued operating losses and cash drain. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.50 The company successfully deploys the cash proceeds from the Dorad Energy sale to advance its solar pipeline in Italy and the US, offsetting the loss of equity-accounted income from Dorad. Merchant power prices in Europe stabilize, and the company maintains compliance with its remaining debenture covenants. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |