Ellington Credit Co Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $4.62median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2025 Market Price $3.98Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $149.5M Enterprise Value $312.1M Shares Outstanding 37.6M diluted Next Earnings Date20 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ellington Credit Co. (formerly Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT) completed its strategic transformation in early 2025, transitioning from an Agency MBS focus to corporate Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), primarily mezzanine debt and equity tranches. While the transition aims to generate high risk-adjusted yields and reduce earnings volatility over the long term, the fund faces near-term headwinds from CLO market volatility and spread widening. The current monthly dividend of $0.08 per share represents an exceptionally high yield, but GAAP net losses and a declining NAV per share ($4.09 as of March 31, 2026) signal ongoing pressure. Active trading and defensive credit hedging provide some cushion, making the stock a Hold for income-focused investors who can tolerate elevated credit and leverage risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.00 Mean target$5.00 High · most bullish analyst$5.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A broader economic slowdown triggers rising corporate defaults and severe spread widening in the high-yield loan market. CLO equity tranches suffer severe cash flow diversions due to overcollateralization test failures. NAV per share drops below $3.50, forcing a dividend cut to preserve capital. Base CaseCentral scenario The CLO market stabilizes, allowing Ellington Credit to deploy its newly raised capital (including the $54 million senior unsecured notes issued in late March 2026) into attractive mezzanine debt and equity tranches. Adjusted NII recovers to the low $0.20s per share, providing adequate coverage for the $0.08 monthly dividend. NAV per share stabilizes around $4.10 to $4.30. Bull CaseUpside scenario Ellington Credit Co's transition to a closed-end fund focused on corporate CLO mezzanine debt and equity tranches provides a high-yielding, diversified portfolio of senior secured loans. This strategy generates robust recurring cash distributions to support its high monthly dividend payout. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |