Elicio Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Elicio Therapeutics Inc

ELTXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.57

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $1.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $50.5M

Enterprise Value $36.5M

Shares Outstanding 26.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Elicio Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company utilizing its proprietary Amphiphile (AMP) platform to target the lymph nodes for cancer immunotherapy. The investment thesis has shifted to a 'Hold' following the June 15, 2026 announcement that its Phase 2 AMPLIFY-7P trial of ELI-002 7P in adjuvant pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) did not meet its primary endpoint of disease-free survival (DFS) in the intent-to-treat population. While post-hoc analyses reveal a strong clinical signal in completely resected R0 patients (representing 84% of the cohort) with a hazard ratio of 0.65, the company's near-term survival is highly constrained by a cash runway extending only into Q4 2026. Investors should remain on the sidelines until Elicio secures strategic partnerships or financing to fund its planned Phase 3 trial.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.00

Mean target$20.00

High · most bullish analyst$27.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.0020%

The bear case assumes Elicio is unable to secure strategic partnerships or sufficient financing on favorable terms, leading to a severe liquidity crisis by late 2026. Dilution from emergency capital raises would severely depress the share price, or the company may be forced to pause clinical development of ELI-002 7P, rendering its early-stage preclinical pipeline (ELI-007, ELI-008) virtually worthless in the near term.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$3.5055%

In the base case, Elicio will face challenges securing non-dilutive funding in the immediate aftermath of the Phase 2 primary endpoint miss. The company will likely utilize its at-the-market (ATM) program or execute highly dilutive equity offerings under its $400M shelf registration to extend its cash runway past Q4 2026. Progress toward initiating the Phase 3 trial will be slow as the company seeks regulatory alignment with the FDA on its refined protocol.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$27.0025%

The bull case relies on the biological validation of the AMP platform, where 99% of evaluable patients generated robust mKRAS-specific T cell responses, which strongly correlated with improved DFS (HR 0.22, p < 0.0001). Furthermore, the post-hoc analysis of R0 completely resected patients demonstrated a clinically meaningful median DFS of 23.8 months versus 12.8 months for observation (HR 0.65, p = 0.048). If Elicio secures a major pharmaceutical partnership to fund the Phase 3 trial in this refined R0 population, the stock could experience a massive re-rating toward historical analyst targets.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong biological proof-of-concept with 99% of evaluable patients showing robust mKRAS-specific T cell responses.
Clear clinical benefit in the R0 completely resected patient population (HR 0.65, median DFS of 23.8 months vs 12.8 months).
Favorable safety and tolerability profile with no treatment-related discontinuations or deaths, supporting long-term dosing.
Promising early signals of synergy when combined with checkpoint inhibitors in metastatic settings.

Key Investment Risks

Severe going concern risk with cash runway only extending into the fourth quarter of 2026.
High risk of near-term equity dilution to fund operations and the planned Phase 3 trial.
Clinical development risk as the primary endpoint of the Phase 2 AMPLIFY-7P trial was missed in the ITT population.
Fierce competition in the KRAS-targeted oncology space from well-funded biopharmaceutical giants.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Inability to secure strategic partnerships or financing before the end of Q3 2026.
FDA refusal to accept the post-hoc R0 subgroup analysis as the basis for a registrational Phase 3 trial design.
Safety signals or lack of efficacy in upcoming clinical updates for other pipeline candidates (ELI-007, ELI-008).

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.