Eli Lilly & Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Eli Lilly & Co

LLYNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryPharmaceuticals

Beta (adjusted)0.67

Intrinsic Value $1,336.77median of 6 methods · middle span $729-$1,839based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $1,149.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $1T

Enterprise Value $1.1T

Shares Outstanding 893.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Lilly has exceptional operating momentum: second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $22.974 billion, increased 48% year over year, and prompted an increase in full-year revenue guidance to $85-$87 billion. Mounjaro and Zepbound remain the principal growth engines, while Foundayo, retatrutide and additional manufacturing capacity broaden the long-term opportunity. The August 2026 cardiovascular-risk indication for Mounjaro strengthens its clinical differentiation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets28 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$850.00

Mean target$1,310.90

High · most bullish analyst$1,600.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$850.0018%

Revenue falls below the $85 billion guidance floor because pricing pressure intensifies, Mounjaro or Zepbound growth slows materially, or manufacturing, regulatory, safety or pipeline setbacks constrain supply and demand. Dependence on a relatively limited group of products magnifies the effect of any cardiometabolic disruption.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,310.9058%

Matches the consensus mean

Lilly delivers within its $85-$87 billion 2026 revenue guidance. Cardiometabolic volume growth remains strong but is partly offset by lower realized prices, while Foundayo and other launches diversify growth gradually and manufacturing investments support supply.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,600.0024%

Revenue reaches or exceeds the $87 billion upper end of 2026 guidance as Mounjaro and Zepbound sustain strong volume growth, Mounjaro's cardiovascular indication expands eligible demand, Foundayo scales from its initial launch quarter, and manufacturing capacity comes online without material delays. Retatrutide's completed Phase 3 obesity data package provides another potential cardiometabolic growth layer.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 48% to $22.974 billion, and Lilly raised full-year revenue guidance to $85-$87 billion.
Mounjaro generated $9.943 billion of second-quarter revenue, increased 91% year over year, and subsequently received an FDA indication to reduce major cardiovascular-event risk in high-risk adults with type 2 diabetes.
Growth optionality extends beyond current injectable incretins: Foundayo recorded $98 million in its initial reported quarter, the retatrutide Phase 3 obesity data package was completed, and Lilly committed an additional $4.5 billion to Indiana manufacturing.

Key Investment Risks

Growth is concentrated in Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together drove much of the quarter's expansion; disruption to either franchise could materially affect results.
Worldwide volume increased 60% in the second quarter, but realized prices declined 13%, demonstrating that pricing and reimbursement pressure can offset part of demand growth.
The outlook depends on successful manufacturing expansion, regulatory execution, clinical outcomes and integration of multiple business-development transactions, all of which Lilly identifies as uncertain.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.