Elevance Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryManaged Health Care Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value $389.77median of 5 methods · middle span $359-$424based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $381.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $82.8B Enterprise Value $103.6B Shares Outstanding 217.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Elevance enters the second half of 2026 with raised adjusted EPS and operating-cash-flow guidance, expanding Carelon revenue, and management confidence in at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027. These positives are balanced by an 89.7% benefit expense ratio, continued Government-business medical-cost pressure, and declining medical membership. With the shares closing at $394.43 on August 28, 2026, the risk-reward supports a Hold pending clearer evidence that medical-cost execution and membership stabilization can sustain the projected earnings recovery. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$393.00 Mean target$449.10 High · most bullish analyst$492.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $393.0018% The benefit expense ratio rises further, medical membership continues to contract, or Carelon growth fails to offset Health Benefits pressure. A reduction in the $27.00 adjusted EPS guidance floor or diminished confidence in the expected 2027 recovery would likely produce a substantial downside reassessment. Base CaseCentral scenario $449.1058% Matches the consensus meanElevance delivers at least $27.00 of adjusted diluted EPS in 2026 and progresses toward its 2027 growth objective, while elevated Government medical costs and enrollment attrition improve only gradually. Bull CaseUpside scenario $492.0024% Medical-cost initiatives produce better-than-expected benefit-expense performance, Carelon's integrated and specialty-pharmacy capabilities sustain profitable growth, and Elevance delivers or exceeds management's stated expectation of at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027. Improved execution and confidence in recurring earnings support a materially higher share price. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |