Element Solutions Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Element Solutions Inc

ESINYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustrySpecialty Chemicals

Beta (adjusted)1.18

Intrinsic Value $22.50median of 5 methods · middle span $16-$27based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $36.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.9B

Enterprise Value $10.3B

Shares Outstanding 243.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Element Solutions entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter organic sales rose 15%, Electronics organic sales rose 20%, adjusted EBITDA increased 35%, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 27.8%. Management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to USD 690-710 million and retained confidence in that trajectory after mutually terminating the proposed Solstice transaction. The offset is valuation uncertainty following the transaction reversal, combined with elevated acquisition-related debt and execution requirements around Micromax and EFC. The scenario prices use the issuer-reported current price and 52-week bounds as transparent reference levels rather than representing a verified sell-side consensus.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$42.00

Mean target$46.75

High · most bullish analyst$50.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$42.0020%

Electronics demand decelerates, industrial markets remain weak, or acquisition integration and input-cost pressures pull adjusted EBITDA below guidance and margin below the prior-year comparison. The reference price is the issuer-reported 52-week low, not a forecast sourced from an analyst consensus.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$46.7555%

Matches the consensus mean

Organic growth moderates from the exceptional second-quarter pace but remains positive, acquisition integration proceeds adequately, and full-year adjusted EBITDA remains within management's USD 690-710 million range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$50.0025%

Sustained high-performance-computing and semiconductor demand, successful Micromax and EFC integration, and continued margin expansion support results at or above the top of the USD 690-710 million adjusted EBITDA range. The reference price is the issuer-reported 52-week high, not an independently verified analyst target.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 organic net sales increased 15%, led by 20% organic growth in Electronics.
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 35% to USD 183.5 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 120 basis points to 27.8%.
Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to USD 690-710 million and projected approximately 20% adjusted EPS growth.
After terminating the Solstice transaction without either party owing a termination payment, management stated that operating momentum remained in line with guidance and recommitted to operational excellence and prudent capital allocation.

Key Investment Risks

Net debt was USD 1.9434 billion at June 30, 2026 after funding the EFC and Micromax acquisitions, increasing the importance of cash conversion and disciplined capital allocation.
The investment case depends on integrating Micromax and EFC while preserving customer service, margins, and expected acquisition contributions.
Management identifies metals-price volatility, tariffs, inflation, foreign exchange, raw-material availability, and geopolitical disruption as factors that could affect demand and profitability.
Mutual termination of the Solstice transaction returned Element Solutions to a standalone strategy and created a valuation reset; the issuer-reported 52-week trading range was USD 22.86-49.25 as of 2026-08-31.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.