Electromed Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.68 Intrinsic Value $41.17median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$91based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $28.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $236.2M Enterprise Value $215.7M Shares Outstanding 8.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Electromed, Inc. (ELMD) represents a highly compelling growth story in the medical technology sector, driven by its market-leading SmartVest® Airway Clearance System. The company operates a highly profitable direct-to-patient model that disintermediates traditional home medical equipment channels, capturing both manufacturer and distributor margins. This has resulted in an exceptional gross margin profile (~79%) and significant operating leverage. With 14 consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue and profit growth as of Q3 FY 2026, no debt, and a robust cash position, Electromed is well-positioned to capture the highly underserved bronchiectasis market, where fewer than 15% of diagnosed patients currently use HFCWO therapy. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$40.33 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.0010% Macroeconomic headwinds, wage inflation, or supply chain disruptions compress gross margins toward the mid-70s. Sales representative turnover increases, causing annualized productivity to fall below the target range of $1.0M. Increased competition in the HFCWO market or adverse changes in insurance reimbursement criteria slow down prescription fulfillment times. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.5060% Electromed sustains double-digit revenue growth (12-15%) driven by steady sales representative hiring and high productivity (exceeding $1.1M per rep). Gross margins remain stable in the 77-79% range, and operating margins hover around 18-20%. The company continues to utilize its positive operating cash flow for opportunistic share repurchases while maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. Bull CaseUpside scenario $40.0030% Sales force expansion and productivity gains exceed expectations, driving homecare revenue growth above 20% annually. The company successfully expands its hospital and distributor channels, while maintaining gross margins near 80% and expanding operating margins toward 22% through strong SG&A leverage. Increased clinical awareness of bronchiectasis accelerates the addressable market penetration. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |