Eldorado Gold Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryGold Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value $34.25median of 6 methods · middle span $13-$135based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $37.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.8B Enterprise Value $10.2B Shares Outstanding 260.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Eldorado offers a material production-growth opportunity through the ramp-up of Skouries and the newly acquired McIlvenna Bay operation, alongside established mines in Canada, Greece and Turkiye. The principal near-term catalysts are Skouries first concentrate and commercial production, McIlvenna Bay's transition to commercial production, and second-half-weighted delivery of updated 2026 gold guidance. The opportunity remains execution-sensitive: first-half gold production was 204,974 ounces against full-year guidance of 495,000-600,000 ounces, year-to-date AISC was $1,934 per ounce, and Skouries still required final site energization and integrated commissioning at the latest reported date. A Hold recommendation balances the substantial growth potential against commissioning, cost and integration risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$32.00 Mean target$40.60 High · most bullish analyst$54.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $32.0020% Final energization, commissioning or tailings-infrastructure work delays Skouries commercial production beyond Q4 2026, while McIlvenna Bay ramp-up challenges and weak output at higher-cost established mines constrain production and keep unit costs above guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $40.6050% Matches the consensus meanSkouries reaches commercial production in Q4 2026 but ramps progressively, McIlvenna Bay advances toward steady-state operation, and consolidated production finishes within the updated range. Cost performance remains elevated during commissioning before improving as new production scales. Bull CaseUpside scenario $54.0030% Skouries achieves first concentrate in Q3 and commercial production in Q4 2026, while McIlvenna Bay completes its ramp-up on schedule. The new operations add meaningful gold and copper production, established mines deliver the updated production range, and operating leverage improves as development assets transition into production. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |