Elbit Systems Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Elbit Systems Ltd

ESLTNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.14

Intrinsic Value $409.40median of 6 methods · middle span $256-$2,649based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $695.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 41% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $32.6B

Enterprise Value $32.1B

Shares Outstanding 46.9M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Next ex-dividend13 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Elbit Systems entered the second half of 2026 with record order backlog, double-digit quarterly revenue growth, expanding operating profitability and stronger cash generation. These factors support favorable medium-term operating visibility. The balanced recommendation reflects execution demands associated with converting a rapidly growing backlog, persistent conflict-related supply-chain and operational constraints, uneven segment performance.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$518.00

Mean target$846.33

High · most bullish analyst$1,075.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$518.0020%

Transportation disruption, component shortages, reserve-duty call-ups, restrictions on engagement with Israeli suppliers or attacks on facilities impair deliveries and raise costs. Aerospace weakness persists, backlog conversion slows and GAAP operating margin retreats toward or below its prior-year comparison.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$846.3355%

Matches the consensus mean

The record backlog converts into continued growth, but capacity expansion, program mix and conflict-related operating constraints moderate the pace of margin improvement. Strong Land, ISTAR and EW, C4I and Cyber, and U.S. activity offset weaker Aerospace comparisons.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,075.0025%

Backlog conversion accelerates while production investments improve execution and capacity. Sustained demand across Europe, Israel and the United States, together with growth in land systems, electronic warfare, communications and directed-energy offerings, supports continued double-digit growth and operating-margin expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Order backlog reached a record $32.0 billion at June 30, 2026; 42% was scheduled for performance during the remainder of 2026 and 2027, providing substantial revenue visibility.
Second-quarter revenue rose to $2.2871 billion from $1.9727 billion, while GAAP operating margin expanded to 9.6% from 8.0% and non-GAAP operating margin reached 10.4%.
Demand is geographically diversified: 73% of backlog was attributable to customers outside Israel, and Elbit Systems of America received U.S. Customs and Border Protection awards totaling more than $370 million through May 2029.

Key Investment Risks

The company disclosed transportation delays and costs, component shortages and elevated prices, reserve-duty call-ups, limitations imposed by some countries and attacks on certain global facilities.
Aerospace revenue declined 8% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 because of unfavorable project mix and lower European training and simulation sales, partly offset by Israeli UAV sales.
Execution risk is elevated as the company expands production capacity and attempts to convert a record backlog while maintaining delivery performance and profitability.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.