Elastic N.V Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $122.81median of 6 methods · middle span $96-$348based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $92.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 33% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.7B Enterprise Value $9.4B Shares Outstanding 105.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Elastic N.V. represents a compelling investment opportunity at the intersection of enterprise search, observability, and security, fueled by generative AI tailwinds. The company's transition to a Search AI platform has driven robust multi-year commitments, as evidenced by an acceleration in RPO growth to 28% and CRPO growth to 20% in Q4 FY26. Despite these strong operational indicators and a clear path to margin expansion (with FY27 pro forma operating margins guided to 19.0%), the stock trades at a significant discount to high-growth infrastructure peers. This valuation disconnect provides a strong margin of safety for long-term investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$53.00 Mean target$75.56 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $53.0020% Intensifying competition in the vector database and observability markets from both hyperscalers and open-source alternatives limits Elastic's pricing power. Consumption-based cloud revenue decelerates as enterprises optimize IT budgets, causing FY27 revenue growth to slow to 11% and compressing operating margins to 15% due to sustained R&D and GTM investments. Base CaseCentral scenario $75.5655% Matches the consensus meanElastic delivers on its FY27 guidance of $1.985B to $2.000B in revenue (representing ~14.6% growth at the midpoint) and pro forma operating margins of 19.0%. Stable consumption patterns in Elastic Cloud combined with steady expansion of the $1M+ ACV cohort support mid-teens top-line growth and gradual free cash flow margin expansion to 21.5%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $120.0025% Accelerating enterprise adoption of generative AI workloads drives unprecedented demand for Elastic's vector search and hybrid search capabilities. Multi-year commitments scale faster than expected, pushing FY27 revenue growth above 17% and expanding pro forma operating margins beyond 21% due to operating leverage. The share repurchase program is executed aggressively, further boosting EPS. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |