Elanco Animal Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Beta (adjusted)1.46 Intrinsic Value $16.58median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.9B Enterprise Value $14.7B Shares Outstanding 502.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Elanco entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 10%, organic constant-currency growth reached 8%, adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.2%, and management raised its full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, innovation-revenue and deleveraging targets. Zenrelia and Credelio Quattro are producing measurable clinic penetration and market-share gains, while the broader strategy targets sustained mid-single-digit organic growth and further margin expansion. A Hold recommendation therefore balances improving execution against leverage, product-launch, regulatory, competitive and restructuring risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$31.21 High · most bullish analyst$34.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $26.0020% Innovation uptake or base-business demand slows enough to push organic constant-currency growth below 6%, while weaker earnings or cash conversion leaves year-end leverage above 3.0x. Product safety or regulatory developments, manufacturing constraints, competitive pressure, or restructuring disruption could compound the shortfall and delay the long-term margin and deleveraging objectives. Base CaseCentral scenario $31.2150% Matches the consensus meanElanco delivers within its raised FY2026 ranges, with innovation offsetting normal variability in the base portfolio and year-end leverage approaching 3.0x. This would validate the current operational recovery without assuming flawless launches or immediate realization of all long-term productivity goals. Bull CaseUpside scenario $34.0030% Innovation adoption remains strong, including continued Zenrelia and Credelio Quattro share gains; FY2026 organic growth finishes at or above the top of the 6%-7% range; innovation revenue reaches the raised $1.25 billion target; and leverage declines to approximately 3.0x. Continued execution would strengthen confidence in Elanco's longer-term mid-single-digit organic growth, margin expansion and cash-generation framework. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |