Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted
Thesis Summary

Edison International offers a regulated, wires-focused growth profile supported by grid reliability, resilience and electrification investment. Second-quarter core EPS was $1.54, management reaffirmed 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90-$6.20 and retained its 5%-7% core EPS growth outlook through 2030. These positives are balanced by continuing Eaton Fire recovery obligations and regulatory dependence.

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This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.
Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026
Low · most bearish analyst$62.00
Mean target$76.04
High · most bullish analyst$86.00
Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026
Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date
Bear CaseDownside scenario
$62.0024%

Core EPS falls below the current guidance floor, regulatory outcomes provide less support than expected, or Eaton Fire recovery requirements increase uncertainty and financing demands.

Base CaseCentral scenario
$76.0456%
Matches the consensus mean

Core EPS remains within the reaffirmed $5.90-$6.20 range and the regulated grid-investment strategy supports growth within management's 5%-7% outlook. Eaton recovery payments continue without materially disrupting the operating plan.

Bull CaseUpside scenario
$86.0020%

Earnings finish near the upper end of 2026 guidance, the company sustains the upper portion of its 5%-7% long-term growth outlook, and continued participation and acceptance in the Eaton compensation program improve visibility into recovery execution.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits
  • The company reaffirmed 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90-$6.20 and maintained confidence in 5%-7% core EPS growth from 2025 through 2030.
  • The regulated wires-focused strategy targets reliability, resilience, climate adaptation and grid modernization required by California's electrification objectives.
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Key Investment Risks
  • Eaton Fire recovery remains a material execution and cash-demand consideration: as of August 28, SCE reported more than $860 million of offers and over $460 million paid through its voluntary compensation program.
  • Earnings remain sensitive to regulatory outcomes; management attributed the year-over-year increase in SCE's second-quarter core EPS primarily to adoption of the 2025 general rate case final decision.
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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AI-assisted, source-linked narrative; figures from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market data. Dates shown per section. Not investment advice. Terms of Use.