Edible Garden AG Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Staples IndustryAgricultural Products Beta (adjusted)1.47 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $1.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2.3M Enterprise Value $3.1M Shares Outstanding 2M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Edible Garden AG Inc (EDBL) is executing a critical strategic pivot from a low-margin, highly perishable fresh produce business into a higher-margin, shelf-stable consumer packaged goods (CPG) and ready-to-drink (RTD) nutrition platform. While the company continues to incur near-term operating losses, its core business is showing robust top-line momentum, highlighted by a 22.9% YoY revenue increase in Q1 2026 and a 45.9% surge in its cut herbs segment. The expansion of its Prairie Hills facility into a clean nutrition hub, backed by partnerships with major retailers like Target, Kroger, and Walmart, provides a clear path toward scalable, higher-margin growth. At its current deeply discounted valuation, EDBL represents a compelling high-risk, high-reward turnaround play in the sustainable agricultural technology and functional nutrition sectors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$45.00 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $0.20 The build-out of the Prairie Hills Tetra Pak facility faces construction delays or cost overruns, straining the company's limited liquidity. Persistent operating losses force further highly dilutive equity offerings, and intense competition from larger, better-capitalized indoor farming and CPG players limits market share gains in the RTD segment. Base CaseCentral scenario $1.00 Edible Garden continues to grow its core fresh-cut herb and produce business at a steady double-digit rate while gradually ramping up its RTD and shelf-stable CPG lines. Operating losses narrow as logistics cost-saving initiatives take effect, and the company successfully navigates its capital constraints without severe equity dilution, moving steadily toward profitability. Bull CaseUpside scenario $5.09 The rapid commercialization of the ready-to-drink (RTD) and clean nutrition platform at the Prairie Hills facility exceeds expectations, driving gross margin expansion. New distribution agreements with national retailers like Target and Kroger scale rapidly, while the logistics transition to a direct-to-distribution-center model successfully eliminates freight inefficiencies, leading the company to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA and cash flow ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |