Ecovyst Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $12.77median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 113M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2021 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT) has successfully transitioned into a highly focused, pure-play sulfur chemistry and regeneration services leader following the strategic divestiture of its Advanced Materials & Catalysts business in late 2025. The company's core Ecoservices segment is uniquely positioned to benefit from secular trends in clean fuels (alkylate demand) and critical industrial materials. With a robust balance sheet characterized by a low net debt leverage ratio of 1.2x, strong cash generation, and an active share repurchase program, Ecovyst offers a compelling risk-reward profile. The recent acquisition of Calabrian and the integration of Waggaman assets further expand its geographic footprint and product capabilities, driving strong top-line and EBITDA growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$13.00 Mean target$15.50 High · most bullish analyst$17.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $13.0020% A macroeconomic slowdown leads to lower refinery utilization and weaker industrial demand for virgin sulfuric acid. Integration challenges with Calabrian or higher-than-expected turnaround costs compress margins, causing Adjusted EBITDA to fall toward the lower end of guidance ($180 million) and limiting free cash flow generation. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.5050% Matches the consensus meanEcovyst delivers on its revised 2026 guidance, supported by steady demand for regenerated sulfuric acid and contributions from the Waggaman assets. Favorable contract pricing offsets general inflation and turnaround costs. Net debt leverage remains stable near 1.2x, and the company continues to execute its remaining stock repurchase authorization. Bull CaseUpside scenario $17.0030% Refinery utilization remains exceptionally high, driving double-digit growth in regeneration services. Favorable contractual pricing and rapid synergy realization from the Calabrian acquisition push Adjusted EBITDA above the high end of guidance to over $200 million. Aggressive share repurchases continue, significantly reducing share count and boosting EPS. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |