Ecolab Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $273.64median of 6 methods · middle span $220-$301based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $271.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $76B Enterprise Value $82.8B Shares Outstanding 282.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ecolab's operating outlook is constructive: second-quarter organic sales growth accelerated to 5%, organic operating income margin reached 18.8%, and adjusted EPS increased 11%. Global High-Tech and Life Sciences provide differentiated growth, while CoolIT broadens Ecolab's exposure to AI data-center cooling. The offset is meaningful execution risk from commodity inflation, geopolitical disruption, acquisition integration, and near-term CoolIT financing and amortization costs. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$295.00 Mean target$324.67 High · most bullish analyst$360.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $295.0020% Pricing fails to offset rising commodity and supply-chain costs, geopolitical disruption weighs on customer activity, and CoolIT integration or financing costs persist longer than expected. Organic sales growth falls below the second-half outlook, margin expansion stalls, and Global High-Tech growth undershoots the rate required to support its 2030 target. Base CaseCentral scenario $324.6750% Matches the consensus meanEcolab delivers within its $8.05-$8.25 adjusted EPS outlook for 2026, with second-half organic sales growth near 6%-7% and margin progression supported by pricing and productivity. Core operations remain resilient and Global High-Tech scales, but CoolIT financing and amortization costs temper near-term EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $360.0030% Organic growth reaches or exceeds the 6%-7% second-half outlook, pricing fully offsets commodity inflation, and organic operating margin advances beyond approximately 20%. CoolIT and Ovivo strengthen Global High-Tech growth, keeping the platform on track for more than 25% annual growth and $4 billion of sales by 2030, while adjusted EPS returns toward management's 12%-15% long-term algorithm after the near-term acquisition-cost effect subsides. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |