EchoStar Corp Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryWireless Telecommunication Services Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $88.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $25.7B Enterprise Value $27.2B Shares Outstanding 290.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary EchoStar is an event-driven restructuring and asset-monetization investment rather than a conventional operating-company valuation. The constructive case rests on closing the AT&T spectrum transaction, realizing value from the SpaceX arrangements, completing the DISH restructuring, and preserving the Q2 improvement in adjusted OIBDA. These opportunities are counterbalanced by continuing subscriber contraction, separate Chapter 11 proceedings involving DISH entities and Hughes entities, and the fact that Q2 reported net income was dominated by a non-cash deconsolidation gain. A Hold recommendation is appropriate until transaction proceeds, creditor outcomes, and the post-restructuring perimeter become sufficiently clear for a reliable per-share valuation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$103.00 Mean target$128.43 High · most bullish analyst$156.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $103.0023% Transaction delays, restructuring costs, creditor claims, or weaker recoveries consume more value than expected while wireless, pay-TV, and broadband subscriber losses persist. Failure to sustain the Q2 operating improvement or a difficult Hughes reorganization would further reduce visibility into the value of EchoStar's retained businesses. Base CaseCentral scenario $128.4357% Matches the consensus meanThe spectrum transactions and restructurings progress, but subscriber erosion and execution complexity offset part of the value unlocked. EchoStar retains meaningful assets and improved operating indicators, while uncertainty over transaction timing, creditor distributions, and the post-restructuring business perimeter warrants a neutral stance. Bull CaseUpside scenario $156.0020% The AT&T transaction closes without a material value leakage, the DISH entities emerge near their stated timetable, Hughes reorganizes around enterprise, government, and defense operations, and the Q2 improvement in wireless and consolidated adjusted OIBDA proves durable. Successful execution would improve strategic flexibility and make the retained operating and investment assets easier to value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |