EBay Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryBroadline Retail Beta (adjusted)1.24 Intrinsic Value $73.52median of 6 methods · middle span $54-$130based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $105.89Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $47.1B Enterprise Value $51.6B Shares Outstanding 452M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary eBay entered the second half of 2026 with materially stronger marketplace momentum: Q2 revenue rose 15%, GMV rose 15%, active buyers reached 136 million and first-party advertising revenue increased 25%. Operating leverage was also constructive, with a 28.5% non-GAAP operating margin and $326 million of quarterly free cash flow. The offset is that Q3 guidance implies moderation, Depop introduces integration and capital-allocation execution risk, and active-buyer growth remains modest relative to GMV growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$67.00 Mean target$115.92 High · most bullish analyst$145.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $67.0017% GMV or revenue falls below the low end of Q3 guidance as marketplace competition, weaker consumer engagement or cross-border and regulatory pressures interrupt recent momentum. Depop integration costs and transaction-related expenses weigh on earnings while active buyers retreat toward or below the 2025 level. Base CaseCentral scenario $115.9258% Matches the consensus meanGrowth moderates toward management's Q3 guidance of 8%-10% FX-neutral revenue growth and 10%-12% FX-neutral GMV growth. Advertising remains a favorable monetization driver, active buyers remain broadly stable to modestly higher and Depop is integrated without a major operational setback. Bull CaseUpside scenario $145.0025% Marketplace momentum persists above the Q3 guidance ranges as focus categories, eBay Live, AI-assisted listing tools, authentication and advertising deepen engagement. Depop expands eBay's relevance with younger fashion consumers without materially disrupting margins, allowing double-digit GMV growth and strong advertising growth to continue. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |