Eastman Kodak Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Eastman Kodak Co

KODKNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Beta (adjusted)1.39

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $9.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $964.3M

Enterprise Value $784.3M

Shares Outstanding 103.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Eastman Kodak Company has demonstrated a notable operational turnaround, delivering three consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth in revenue, gross profit, and operational EBITDA as of Q1 2026. The company's strategic focus on its core Print and Advanced Materials & Chemicals (AM&C) segments, combined with disciplined pricing actions, has successfully expanded gross margins to 22%. Furthermore, Kodak has significantly strengthened its balance sheet, reducing its debt and ending Q1 2026 with a healthy cash balance of $299 million. However, despite these operational improvements, Kodak continues to report GAAP net losses ($16 million in Q1 2026) due to non-cash items, lower pension income, and debt extinguishment costs. Given the ongoing restructuring, exposure to volatile commodity prices (silver and aluminum), and the speculative nature of its growth initiatives, a Hold rating is maintained until GAAP profitability stabilizes and long-term growth initiatives mature.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

In the bear case, severe macroeconomic headwinds, including persistent inflation and sharp increases in silver and aluminum prices, compress gross margins. The Print segment faces faster-than-expected secular decline, and growth in the AM&C segment fails to offset this drop. GAAP net losses widen further due to restructuring charges and derivative fair value adjustments, eroding the company's cash reserves and putting pressure on liquidity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Under the base case, Kodak continues to execute its long-term operational plan, maintaining stable revenues in its Print segment while driving moderate growth in the Advanced Materials & Chemicals segment. Pricing actions successfully offset inflationary pressures and commodity price increases, keeping gross margins steady around 22%. Operational EBITDA continues to improve sequentially, and the company gradually transitions toward consistent GAAP net profitability as non-operational charges subside.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Kodak's turnaround is driven by its focus on core commercial print and advanced materials & chemicals (AM&C) segments, which have shown consecutive quarters of revenue and Operational EBITDA growth. The company has significantly strengthened its balance sheet by reducing debt, terminating the Kodak Retirement Income Plan (KRIP) to revert excess cash assets, and expanding into high-margin specialty chemicals and pharmaceutical-related products.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Three consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth in revenue, gross profit, and operational EBITDA as of Q1 2026.
Significant balance sheet improvement, with a strong cash position of $299 million relative to reduced debt obligations.
Successful pricing discipline and operational efficiencies driving gross margin expansion to 22%.
Strong brand equity and global reach, with opportunities in high-margin advanced materials and chemicals.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent GAAP net losses driven by non-cash items, pension adjustments, and non-operational charges.
High exposure to volatile commodity prices, specifically silver and aluminum, which impact manufacturing costs.
Secular pressures in traditional printing markets requiring continuous investment in digital and packaging innovations.
Potential dilution risks from outstanding convertible debt instruments and preferred stock agreements.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sharp decline in gross margins below 18% due to unhedged commodity price spikes or failed pricing actions.
Failure to maintain a positive net cash position, or unexpected liquidity constraints arising from debt refinancing.
A prolonged delay in achieving GAAP net profitability, indicating that operational gains are entirely offset by non-operating expenses.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.