Eastgroup Properties Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Industrial Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $164.75median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $194.84Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.5B Enterprise Value $12.1B Shares Outstanding 54.2M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary EastGroup's latest operating evidence is favorable: second-quarter operating-portfolio occupancy was 95.6%, cash same-property PNOI increased 8.3%, straight-line rental rates increased 34.1%, and FFO per share excluding specified gains increased 6.8%. Management raised projected 2026 development starts to $325 million and guided to 95.3%-96.1% average operating occupancy. The August dividend increase to $1.75 quarterly strengthens the income case. However, the active development and value-add program was only 22% leased, and the latest issuer quote of $198.78 already reflects part of the operating strength. A Hold balances sound execution and dividend growth against development lease-up risk and limited evidence for material appreciation beyond the recent trading range. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$185.00 Mean target$228.40 High · most bullish analyst$268.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $185.0020% Occupancy falls below the guidance floor, cash same-property growth weakens, and the 22%-leased development and value-add pipeline experiences slower absorption. The price target equals the lower endpoint of the issuer-reported 52-week trading range. Base CaseCentral scenario $228.4055% Matches the consensus meanEastGroup delivers within its revised 2026 occupancy and same-property growth guidance, maintains disciplined development activity, and benefits from the higher dividend. Bull CaseUpside scenario $268.0025% Leasing demand remains strong, rental spreads stay elevated, occupancy holds within or above guidance, and the development program's lease-up improves while planned starts proceed. The price target equals the upper endpoint of the issuer-reported 52-week trading range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |