Eastern Co Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.90 Intrinsic Value $19.92median of 5 methods · middle span $20-$22based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $24.04Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $144.7M Enterprise Value $171.2M Shares Outstanding 6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary The Eastern Company (EML) is navigating a transitional phase in 2026. While Q1 2026 results were pressured by labor inefficiencies and unfavorably priced contracts in its racks business, the company's order backlog remains healthy at $82.2 million. The strategic acquisition of Sungear and Crown Precision for $7.85 million establishes a high-margin fourth operating platform in the aerospace and defense sectors, which is expected to diversify revenue and mitigate cyclicality in commercial transportation. However, near-term margin pressures and macroeconomic headwinds warrant a cautious Hold stance until operational improvements in the racks business materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.0020% Unfavorable contract pricing and labor inefficiencies in the racks business persist past Q2 2026, causing prolonged margin compression. Integration of the new acquisitions faces delays, and a broader downturn in the heavy-duty truck and automotive sectors further dampens demand, driving the stock to retest key support levels. Base CaseCentral scenario $23.0050% The company stabilizes its core commercial transportation and logistics segments while gradually integrating the newly acquired aerospace and defense assets. Racks business issues are resolved in the first half of 2026 as expected, and the company maintains its long-standing dividend commitment (56 consecutive years) supported by steady cash generation. Bull CaseUpside scenario $28.0030% Successful integration of Sungear and Crown Precision drives rapid expansion into high-margin aerospace and defense markets. Operational inefficiencies in the racks business are fully resolved by the end of Q2 2026, leading to significant gross margin recovery. Strong order conversion at Eberhard and Velvac accelerates organic growth, pushing the stock toward the upper end of its historical trading range. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |