Easterly Government Properties Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Office Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $28.18median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $23.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 47.4M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Easterly Government Properties, Inc. (DEA) offers a highly stable, income-focused investment proposition backed by mission-critical Class A commercial properties leased primarily to the U.S. Government. The company's cash flows are exceptionally secure, with approximately 88% of its annual lease income backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. While the company is successfully executing strategic initiatives—such as its first high-yield mezzanine construction loan at 12% per annum and raising the lower end of its 2026 Core FFO guidance—persistently high borrowing costs and macro interest rate headwinds continue to limit highly accretive acquisition opportunities. Consequently, the stock is best suited as a defensive income holding with a sustainable dividend yield of approximately 7.5% to 7.8%, but near-term capital appreciation remains constrained. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$22.00 Mean target$25.21 High · most bullish analyst$27.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistently high or rising interest rates increase the cost of refinancing its $1.7 billion debt load, compressing margins and limiting accretive growth. Furthermore, potential federal budget cuts or space consolidations driven by government efficiency mandates could pressure lease renewal rates and occupancy levels. Base CaseCentral scenario The company delivers on its raised full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance of $3.06 - $3.12 per share, supported by stable occupancy of ~97% and contractual rent growth. Strategic mezzanine lending and disciplined capital allocation offset elevated debt costs, maintaining a safe dividend payout ratio. The stock trades in line with historical multiples, yielding a stable income stream. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |