Dynatrace Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $47.58median of 6 methods · middle span $41-$81based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $59.26Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $17.2B Enterprise Value $16.1B Shares Outstanding 293.3M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dynatrace combines durable enterprise subscription economics with renewed growth momentum: first-quarter fiscal 2027 ARR increased 17% to $2.136 billion, organic net-new ARR grew 41%, and management retained 15.5%-16.5% constant-currency ARR-growth guidance. The proposed $915 million Arize acquisition could materially strengthen Dynatrace's position across AI development and production observability, but it introduces integration risk and an expected 175-basis-point fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating-margin dilution. The $1.25 billion exchangeable-notes financing increases capital-structure complexity and potential dilution. With the shares closing at $53.67 on August 28, near their stated 2026 high of $54.61, the favorable operating trajectory appears substantially reflected in the current price, supporting a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$58.33 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.0023% Over the next 12 months, net retention falls below 110%, fiscal 2027 ARR growth misses the lower end of guidance, or Arize integration costs exceed the announced margin impact. Competitive pressure from platform vendors, hyperscalers, open-source tools, and rapidly evolving AI alternatives compounds execution risk, while exchangeable-note and warrant structures weigh on valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $58.3358% Matches the consensus meanOver the next 12 months, Dynatrace delivers within its 15.5%-16.5% constant-currency ARR-growth outlook, net retention remains near 110%, and Arize contributes the expected approximately 200 basis points to ARR growth while creating manageable near-term margin dilution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $65.0019% Over the next 12 months, organic ARR acceleration persists, annualized logs consumption continues expanding from its $200 million first-quarter level, and Arize closes and integrates successfully. The combined platform converts Dynatrace's enterprise distribution and Arize's developer credibility into faster AI-observability adoption while margin dilution remains within the announced 175-basis-point expectation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |