Dycom Industries Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Dycom Industries Inc

DYNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEngineering & Construction

Beta (adjusted)1.36

Intrinsic Value $390.92median of 6 methods · middle span $230-$1,004based on filings through 1 Aug 2026

Market Price $269.96Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.1B

Enterprise Value $10.6B

Shares Outstanding 30.5M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date25 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Dycom has strong operating momentum: fiscal 2027 second-quarter revenue reached USD 2.006 billion, organic growth was 16.7%, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 15.7%, and backlog increased to USD 12.242 billion. The raised full-year revenue outlook and rapid Building Systems expansion support continued growth. Offsetting factors are a 134-basis-point year-over-year contraction in Communications adjusted EBITDA margin, approximately USD 150 million of wireless revenue deferred into fiscal 2028, acquisition-integration requirements, and the substantial acquired-business contribution embedded in headline revenue growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$610.00

Mean target$637.27

High · most bullish analyst$700.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$610.0020%

Wireless deferrals expand beyond the disclosed amount, Communications margin deteriorates as labor, fuel, and scaling costs outweigh revenue growth, and acquired operations contribute less profitability than recent results imply. Slower backlog conversion or customer capital-budget changes compound the downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$637.2750%

Matches the consensus mean

Dycom delivers within its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of USD 7.48-7.66 billion, backlog supports continued growth, Building Systems remains a meaningful diversification engine, and Communications margin stabilizes after near-term scaling costs and wireless timing pressure.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$700.0030%

Fiber-to-the-home, long-haul and middle-mile fiber, data-center cabling, and other digital-infrastructure demand remain stronger for longer. Backlog converts on schedule, Communications absorbs workforce investments and restores operating leverage, while Building Systems sustains strong execution and expands Dycom's addressable market.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal 2027 second-quarter organic contract revenue grew 16.7%, while total backlog reached a record USD 12.242 billion, providing substantial forward work visibility.
Building Systems generated USD 397.5 million of quarterly revenue and a 24.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, adding exposure to data centers and other critical infrastructure.
Management raised fiscal 2027 contract-revenue guidance to USD 7.48-7.66 billion and continued to expect a year-over-year increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin.

Key Investment Risks

Approximately USD 150 million of wireless-program revenue shifted into fiscal 2028, and Communications adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 13.6% from 14.9%.
Headline quarterly revenue growth of 45.6% included acquired-business revenue; organic growth was lower at 16.7%, making acquisition integration and underlying growth quality important.
Customer capital-budget changes, skilled-labor availability, fuel costs, acquisition synergies, and project execution can materially affect revenue timing and margins.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.