Ducommun Inc Dossier
|
SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.03 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $171.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2.6B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 15.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Feb 2011 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ducommun Inc. (NYSE: DCO) is well-positioned to capitalize on robust defense spending and a cyclical recovery in commercial aerospace. Despite a recent financial restatement related to historical stock-based compensation accounting, the company's underlying operational momentum remains strong. Ducommun is successfully executing its 'Vision 2027' strategy—targeting $950M to $1B in revenue and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin—while shifting its portfolio toward higher-margin proprietary Engineered Products. The upcoming unveiling of its 'Vision 2032' strategy in September 2026 serves as a major catalyst to reset mid-term targets and highlight long-term capital allocation priorities. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$200.00 Mean target$212.00 High · most bullish analyst$228.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged commercial aerospace supply chain disruptions, persistent destocking by major tier-1 customers, and delayed remediation of internal control weaknesses. These factors could lead to compressed margins and multiple contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady execution of the Vision 2027 roadmap, supported by a defense backlog of over $1.07B and commercial aerospace revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits. Operational margins continue to expand through footprint consolidation (e.g., Monrovia facility closure) and a favorable product mix, offsetting near-term headwinds from supply chain destocking. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |