DT Midstream Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

DT Midstream Inc

DTMNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $77.57median of 6 methods · middle span $63-$161based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $120.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.2B

Enterprise Value $15.4B

Shares Outstanding 102.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend21 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

DT Midstream entered the second half of 2026 with first-half adjusted EBITDA of $613 million, reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $1.155-$1.225 billion, a 2027 outlook of $1.225-$1.295 billion, and $2 billion of commercialized organic projects. A Hold therefore balances sound execution and backlog conversion against project, regulatory, customer, financing, cyber, and environmental risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets14 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$130.00

Mean target$155.00

High · most bullish analyst$176.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$130.0022%

A guidance miss, slower permitting or construction, weaker producer volumes, customer stress, or higher financing and compliance costs could impair backlog economics and cause the shares to revisit the official 52-week low.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$155.0059%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes delivery within the reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA range, continued conversion of the organic backlog, and maintenance of the $0.88 quarterly dividend. The latest official closing price is used as a neutral provisional target rather than presenting an unsupported consensus anchor.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$176.0019%

Execution near the high end of 2026 guidance, progression toward the 2027 outlook, and timely delivery of LEAP Phase 5, Viking modernization, and Guardian G3 could support a return to the official 52-week high.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached $613 million versus $557 million in the prior-year period, while management reaffirmed its full-year range.
The company reported $2 billion of commercialized organic projects, including contracted LEAP Phase 5 capacity, a Viking modernization investment decision, and a Guardian G3 FERC application.

Key Investment Risks

The outlook depends on completing organic projects on time and on budget and obtaining required regulatory approvals.
Results remain exposed to producer volumes, customer defaults, financing availability, cyber threats, operating hazards, and changing pipeline, environmental, and emissions regulation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.