DraftKings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

DraftKings Inc

DKNGNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryGambling

Beta (adjusted)1.41

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $19.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $9.6B

Enterprise Value $10.5B

Shares Outstanding 461.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

DraftKings retains favorable customer and wagering-volume momentum, with second-quarter 2026 Sports Consumer Volume up 15% and monthly unique payers up approximately 9%. Management maintained full-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance and stated that the core business remained on track for approximately $1 billion of Adjusted EBITDA. The offset is weak near-term monetization: quarterly revenue declined 5%, Sports net revenue margin fell to 6.8%, and ARPMUP declined 13% amid customer-friendly outcomes and promotional reinvestment. Predictions and the nationwide Super App offer incremental growth, but Predictions investment and regulatory uncertainty increase execution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets35 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.00

Mean target$34.84

High · most bullish analyst$76.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$18.0025%

Persistent customer-friendly sports outcomes, promotional reinvestment, weaker Sports net revenue margin, or adverse regulation of prediction markets causes results to fall below the lower bounds of the maintained fiscal-year revenue or Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$34.8455%

Matches the consensus mean

DraftKings delivers within its maintained fiscal-year 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA ranges. Customer and wagering-volume growth partly offset lower monetization, while continued Predictions investment limits near-term conversion of core-business profitability into consolidated Adjusted EBITDA.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$76.0020%

Revenue approaches the upper end of the maintained $6.5 billion-$6.9 billion range and Adjusted EBITDA approaches the upper end of the $700 million-$900 million range as sports outcomes normalize, customer growth persists, and Predictions scales faster than management initially anticipated without materially weakening acquisition economics.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter Sports Consumer Volume increased 15% to approximately $13.1 billion, while average monthly unique payers increased approximately 9% to 3.6 million.
Management maintained fiscal-year 2026 revenue guidance of $6.5 billion-$6.9 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $700 million-$900 million.
Management reported that the Super App was live nationwide and that Predictions was growing faster than anticipated, creating a potential incremental growth channel.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter 2026 revenue declined 5% year over year, while Adjusted EBITDA fell to $114.6 million from $300.6 million.
ARPMUP declined approximately 13% to $132 and Sports net revenue margin fell to 6.8%, reflecting sensitivity to sports outcomes and promotional reinvestment.
Predictions execution and profitability remain uncertain, and changes in laws or regulations governing prediction markets and event contracts could materially affect the opportunity.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.