Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd ADR Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $13.29median of 4 methods · middle span $13-$13based on filings through 31 Mar 2025 Market Price $12.25Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.2B Enterprise Value $10.1B Shares Outstanding 833M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dr. Reddy's presents a balanced risk-reward profile. The underlying business excluding lenalidomide retained double-digit growth across major geographies, India delivered strong growth, and the FDA approval of the company's rituximab biosimilar supports longer-term diversification into complex biologics. These merits are offset by a 5.6% year-over-year revenue decline in Q1 FY2027, a 12.5% EBITDA margin, continuing lenalidomide erosion, generic price pressure and an out-of-specification semaglutide API issue that interrupted an important new-product opportunity. A neutral stance is appropriate until semaglutide supply resumes and reported margins demonstrate sustained normalization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.37 Mean target$13.45 High · most bullish analyst$15.74 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $11.3726% Semaglutide remediation or market re-entry slips beyond November 2026, lenalidomide erosion and generic pricing pressure remain severe, and biosimilar commercialization takes longer than expected. EBITDA margin then remains materially below the company's normalized ambition, weakening the earnings-recovery case. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.4554% Matches the consensus meanHealthy growth in India and the broader base business partly offsets declining lenalidomide sales. Semaglutide supply resumes after remediation, but launch timing, generic price erosion and elevated costs produce a gradual rather than immediate margin recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.7420% Semaglutide remediation succeeds and commercial supply resumes by November 2026, the ex-lenalidomide base business sustains double-digit growth, and approved or filed biosimilars broaden the earnings base. Margin recovery toward management's normalized ambitions would confirm that the Q1 FY2027 compression was predominantly temporary. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |