DR Horton Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryHomebuilding Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value $122.62median of 6 methods · middle span $80-$128based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $137.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $38.3B Shares Outstanding 284.2M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary D.R. Horton retains material scale, liquidity and inventory-sourcing advantages, but the near-term earnings balance is mixed. Fiscal third-quarter closings rose 4% and net sales orders were stable, while net income declined 12%, diluted EPS declined 5%, cancellations rose to 20%, and management expected elevated incentives to persist into the fourth quarter. The resulting stance is Hold: operating resilience and capital returns offset affordability pressure, margin risk and a substantially larger unsold inventory position. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$125.00 Mean target$162.92 High · most bullish analyst$206.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $125.0022% Mortgage rates and affordability constraints remain restrictive, cancellations rise materially above the third-quarter level, and the large stock of unsold completed homes requires deeper incentives. Home-sales gross margin falls below the monitoring threshold, inventory turns weaken and earnings contract despite closing-volume support. Base CaseCentral scenario $162.9258% Matches the consensus meanD.R. Horton finishes fiscal 2026 broadly within company guidance of $32.5 billion to $33.0 billion of consolidated revenue and 83,800 to 84,300 homebuilding closings. Elevated incentives and cautious buyers constrain margin and earnings improvement, but scale, liquidity and disciplined pacing prevent a severe deterioration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $206.0020% Affordability improves sufficiently for D.R. Horton to sustain its sales pace with less incentive pressure. Its broad footprint, flexible lot supply and liquidity then support closings near or above the upper end of fiscal 2026 guidance while preserving a home-sales gross margin around or above the third-quarter level. Strong cash generation and continued repurchases enhance per-share outcomes. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |