Doximity Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Information Services Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $33.04median of 6 methods · middle span $18-$37based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $28.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.1B Enterprise Value $4.8B Shares Outstanding 189.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Doximity remains the dominant digital platform for U.S. medical professionals, boasting over 800,000 active prescribers. However, the company is entering a transitional 'AI investment year' in fiscal 2027, characterized by soft short-term demand in the healthcare professional (HCP) digital pharma advertising market and limited budget visibility. While Doximity's workflow and clinical AI tools (such as Scribe and AI Search) are seeing record engagement, near-term margins are expected to compress due to elevated R&D, compute, and marketing expenses. With fiscal 2027 revenue growth guided at a modest 4% midpoint, the stock is likely to remain range-bound until pharma advertising budgets normalize and AI monetization begins to scale in late calendar 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$29.11 High · most bullish analyst$47.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.00 Pharmaceutical marketing budgets experience prolonged contraction, and competition from AI-native platforms like OpenEvidence intensifies, leading to market share loss. AI compute costs escalate faster than projected, compressing non-GAAP gross margins below 85%. Net revenue retention falls below 100% as smaller clients churn, causing fiscal 2027 revenue to miss the low end of guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $29.11 Matches the consensus meanDoximity delivers on its fiscal 2027 guidance, with revenue growing 4% to approximately $670 million and adjusted EBITDA margins landing at 49% (down from 55.5% in fiscal 2026). AI tools continue to see strong physician adoption, but material revenue contribution remains minimal until fiscal 2028. Valuation multiples stabilize around historical lows as the market waits for growth to re-accelerate. Bull CaseUpside scenario $47.00 Pharma digital marketing budgets recover faster than expected in the second half of fiscal 2027. Simultaneously, the commercialization of the AI Search product (launched in late April) ramps up rapidly, driving high-margin upsells during the calendar 2027 upfront season. Operating leverage returns, and the company's aggressive share buyback program ($493 million remaining as of March 31, 2026) significantly boosts EPS. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |