Dover Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Dover Corp

DOVNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryIndustrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Beta (adjusted)1.10

Intrinsic Value $177.02median of 6 methods · middle span $152-$242based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $188.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $25.3B

Enterprise Value $26.8B

Shares Outstanding 135.4M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Dover entered the second half of 2026 with positive organic growth in all five segments, double-digit adjusted EPS growth, bookings above shipments and raised full-year guidance. Its 71st consecutive annual dividend increase and active bolt-on acquisition program support the long-term capital-allocation case. A Hold recommendation is appropriate because operating momentum is constructive.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$168.00

Mean target$246.89

High · most bullish analyst$288.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$168.0017%

Organic growth falls below management's 4% floor as customer demand or capital spending weakens, input-cost inflation becomes harder to offset, or acquisition execution absorbs more management attention and capital than expected. These conditions would increase the risk of adjusted EPS falling below $10.55.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$246.8958%

Matches the consensus mean

Dover delivers within its FY2026 organic-growth range of 4%-6% and adjusted-EPS range of $10.55-$10.75. Bookings provide second-half visibility, while disciplined bolt-on acquisitions and the increased dividend support shareholder returns.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$288.0025%

Organic growth reaches the upper end of the 4%-6% outlook, strong bookings convert into revenue, operating execution continues to offset input-cost inflation, and the Cloeren and Leistung transactions expand Dover's addressable markets without material integration disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

All five operating segments generated positive organic growth in the second quarter, and consolidated Q2 organic growth was 4.8%.
Second-quarter consolidated bookings of $2.331 billion exceeded revenue of $2.190 billion, supporting management's second-half visibility.
Management raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.55-$10.75 and maintained a 4%-6% organic-growth outlook.
The August 2026 dividend increase marked Dover's 71st consecutive year of annual dividend growth.

Key Investment Risks

Management identified input-cost inflation as a current operating pressure, even though Q2 execution offset its effect.
The outlook depends on bookings converting into shipments and on customer demand and capital spending remaining constructive.
Dover's active acquisition program creates integration, valuation and synergy-realization risk, while the terms of the planned Leistung transaction were not disclosed.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.