Douglas Emmett Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Office Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $17.69median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 82% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+82%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $7.3B Shares Outstanding 201.1M diluted Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Douglas Emmett Inc. (DEI) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company benefits from a dominant market share of Class A office space (averaging ~39%) in premier, supply-constrained coastal submarkets of Los Angeles and Honolulu, alongside a highly resilient multifamily portfolio that remains nearly fully leased at 99.6%. However, these structural advantages are heavily offset by secular headwinds in the office sector, declining office occupancy, and elevated leverage with high interest expenses. While Q1 2026 FFO of $0.37 per share beat conservative expectations, the company continues to project a net loss for the full year 2026. Valuation is fair at approximately 12x AFFO, but a meaningful re-rating is unlikely without a sustained recovery in office leasing or a larger strategic shift toward multifamily assets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.00 Mean target$13.10 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $11.00 The bear case is triggered by a broader macroeconomic downturn or accelerated secular decline in office demand, leading to major tenant departures and office occupancy falling below 75%. Refinancing maturing debt at higher-for-longer interest rates would further compress margins, potentially forcing a dividend cut to preserve liquidity. Base CaseCentral scenario $13.10 Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes office leasing remains stable but challenging, with average office occupancy hovering around 77% to 79% in line with management guidance. Multifamily assets continue to perform exceptionally well, maintaining near-total occupancy. Elevated interest expenses persist, keeping full-year FFO within the guided range of $1.39 to $1.45 per share and resulting in a net loss for the year. The dividend is maintained at $0.76 annualized. Bull CaseUpside scenario $15.00 The bull case relies on a faster-than-expected return-to-office trend in premium West Coast submarkets, driving positive net absorption and pushing office occupancy back toward historical averages. Additionally, rapid expansion of the high-margin multifamily segment and successful integration of joint ventures like the Bedford Collection medical office portfolio could accelerate FFO growth and support multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |