Dorian LPG Ltd Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Midstream Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $44.01median of 5 methods · middle span $32-$53based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $56.59Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.4B Enterprise Value $2.6B Shares Outstanding 42.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dorian LPG Ltd. is a premier owner and operator of modern Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) that is uniquely positioned to benefit from structural shifts in global LPG trade flows, particularly expanding U.S. export capacity. Despite cyclical risks associated with a heavy industry orderbook, Dorian's high fleet utilization, strong cash generation, and commitment to returning capital via irregular dividends make it a compelling investment. The company's strategic focus on dual-fuel vessels and ammonia-carriage readiness also provides a strong long-term competitive advantage in the global energy transition. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.00 Mean target$51.80 High · most bullish analyst$55.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.0020% A rapid influx of newbuild VLGC deliveries combined with a global economic slowdown or a resolution of geopolitical shipping bottlenecks leads to a sharp decline in spot rates toward $30,000 per day. Profit margins compress, forcing a reduction or suspension of irregular dividends. Base CaseCentral scenario $51.8050% Matches the consensus meanTCE rates normalize to a healthy range of $45,000 to $50,000 per day as new vessel deliveries are absorbed by growing global demand. Dorian maintains high fleet utilization (~95%) and continues its balanced capital allocation strategy across fleet renewal, deleveraging, and steady shareholder returns. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0030% Sustained geopolitical disruptions and structural trade flow shifts continue to restrict vessel supply, keeping TCE rates elevated above $60,000 per day. Stronger-than-expected U.S. and Middle East LPG export growth drives high utilization, leading to record free cash flow and continued irregular dividend payouts. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |