Donaldson Co Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $74.48median of 6 methods · middle span $65-$107based on filings through 30 Apr 2026 Market Price $87.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.2B Enterprise Value $10.6B Shares Outstanding 117.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Donaldson enters fiscal 2027 after record fiscal 2026 sales and earnings, with management forecasting further sales growth, operating-margin expansion, and higher EPS. Aftermarket resilience, Life Sciences growth, improving Industrial Solutions execution, and the Facet acquisition provide upside. These strengths are balanced by acquisition-related leverage and interest expense, expected Facet dilution, supply-chain constraints, and reliance on pricing, currency, and acquired revenue within guidance. A Hold recommendation is appropriate because the operating outlook is constructive. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$79.00 Mean target$96.80 High · most bullish analyst$123.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $79.0020% Donaldson falls below fiscal 2027 guidance as industrial demand weakens, Aerospace and Defense supply constraints persist, Facet integration or dilution is worse than planned, and higher debt-related interest expense offsets operating gains. Sales growth below 5.5%, operating margin below 16.6%, or EPS below $4.22 would indicate this case is developing. Base CaseCentral scenario $96.8055% Matches the consensus meanDonaldson delivers within its fiscal 2027 guidance ranges: sales increase 5.5%-9.5%, operating margin reaches 16.6%-17.2%, diluted EPS reaches $4.22-$4.38, and free-cash-flow conversion remains 95%-105%. This assumes continued Aftermarket and Life Sciences growth, gradual resolution of industrial supply constraints, and satisfactory Facet integration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $123.0025% Donaldson reaches the upper ends of fiscal 2027 guidance as Aftermarket demand remains resilient, Life Sciences sustains high-single-digit or better growth, Facet accelerates Aerospace and Defense, and operating improvements lift margin toward 17.2%. Strong cash conversion would also permit faster debt reduction while preserving shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |