Domino's Pizza Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $445.69median of 5 methods · middle span $436-$520based on filings through 14 Jun 2026 Market Price $295.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 51% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.8B Enterprise Value $9.6B Shares Outstanding 33.3M diluted Next Earnings Date13 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Domino's retains a strong franchise-led and digitally intensive operating model, and second-quarter 2026 results showed positive delivery and carryout order counts, 209 net store additions and positive operating-income growth despite pressured U.S. quick-service demand. The offset is weak sales momentum: U.S. same-store sales increased only 0.1% and international same-store sales declined 0.1% excluding currency. Product innovation and the new digital ordering experience offer upside, but evidence of sustained comparable-sales acceleration is needed. This is an operational Hold assessment rather than a market-price-based valuation call. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$270.00 Mean target$380.29 High · most bullish analyst$450.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $270.0020% Consumer pressure persists, promotional intensity fails to create durable sales growth and international comparable sales remain negative. Digital-platform disruption or weak adoption of new products compounds the slowdown, while lower store productivity makes continued network expansion less attractive. Base CaseCentral scenario $380.2958% Matches the consensus meanPositive order counts and continued store openings support growth, but pressured consumer demand keeps comparable sales subdued. Digital and product initiatives help Domino's gain share without producing an immediate acceleration. Bull CaseUpside scenario $450.0022% The new digital ordering experience and product pipeline, including the nationwide Domino launch, improve conversion and customer frequency. Positive order-count trends broaden into stronger same-store sales while global store expansion continues, allowing the franchise and supply-chain flywheel to produce sustained operating growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |