Dollar Tree Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail Beta (adjusted)0.77 Intrinsic Value $136.95median of 6 methods · middle span $121-$208based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $114.43Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $21.5B Enterprise Value $23.3B Shares Outstanding 189.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dollar Tree entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with strong reported momentum: second-quarter sales increased 7.0%, comparable sales increased 3.7%, traffic turned positive, and the multi-price format reached approximately 6,600 stores. The counterweight is earnings quality and durability. Second-quarter EPS and margin benefited materially from tariff refunds, first-half traffic remained slightly negative, and management expects substantial refund reinvestment and additional freight expense during the remainder of 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$85.00 Mean target$127.64 High · most bullish analyst$170.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Traffic turns negative again, customers resist further price and assortment changes, and reinvestment, freight, tariff or duty costs pressure results after the nonrecurring refund benefit normalizes. Under this scenario, comparable sales or adjusted EPS fall below management's fiscal 2026 ranges. Base CaseCentral scenario Comparable sales remain within management's 3%-4% fiscal-year range and adjusted EPS finishes within the $7.70-$8.05 outlook. Multi-price penetration supports ticket growth, but traffic improvement is uneven and second-half reinvestment absorbs part of the tariff-refund benefit. Bull CaseUpside scenario Comparable sales remain near or above the upper end of the 3%-4% fiscal-year outlook, positive traffic persists, and the expanded multi-price assortment increases basket size without undermining Dollar Tree's value proposition. Store-condition, marketing, supply-chain and execution investments then convert the temporary tariff-refund windfall into more durable operating improvement. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |