Dollar General Corp Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Staples IndustryConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail Beta (adjusted)0.49 Intrinsic Value $139.66median of 6 methods · middle span $129-$172based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $118.93Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $26.2B Enterprise Value $29.3B Shares Outstanding 221.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Last ex-dividend7 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Dollar General entered the second half of fiscal 2026 with broad-based comparable-sales momentum, customer traffic growth, lower inventory per store and substantially improved reported profitability. The outlook nevertheless warrants a valuation-neutral Hold because a meaningful portion of second-quarter margin and EPS improvement came from tariff refunds that management does not expect to recur materially in the second half, while execution of a large store-project and capital-spending program remains important. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$90.00 Mean target$131.90 High · most bullish analyst$175.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Comparable-sales growth falls below the guidance floor as pressured consumers become more price-sensitive, while markdowns, transportation expense, shrink, wage costs or weaker execution limit underlying margin progress. Spending above the capital-expenditure ceiling without commensurate store productivity would further weaken the investment case. Base CaseCentral scenario Same-store sales finish within management's 2.5%-2.9% fiscal 2026 range, supported by continued traffic and transaction growth, while profitability moderates from the unusually strong second quarter because management expects no material second-half benefit from tariff refunds. Capital expenditures remain within the $1.4-$1.5 billion range and the real-estate program advances broadly as planned. Bull CaseUpside scenario Broad-based demand persists above guidance: traffic remains positive, all four merchandise categories continue producing positive comparable sales, inventory discipline supports in-stock execution, and store renovations and openings lift productivity. Better underlying distribution efficiency and operating leverage offset the absence of further material tariff-refund benefits. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |