DocuSign Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $68.08median of 6 methods · middle span $47-$82based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $69.74Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13B Enterprise Value $12.5B Shares Outstanding 192M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Docusign entered its September 3 earnings event with improving IAM adoption, high-single-digit revenue and ARR growth, strong free-cash-flow generation and expanding operating leverage. IAM increased from 10.8% of ARR at January 31, 2026 to 12.6% at April 30, while first-quarter revenue rose 9% and non-GAAP operating margin reached 32.0%. The official investor-relations quote was $64.64 when retrieved. The risk/reward is balanced immediately before results: successful IAM expansion and sustained margin execution support upside, but the latest reported growth benefited from foreign exchange and management still guides to high-single-digit ARR growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.89 Mean target$59.33 High · most bullish analyst$90.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.8920% Revenue or ARR growth falls below the prior guidance floor, IAM's share of ARR stalls at or below 12.6%, or product, competitive and infrastructure execution requires heavier spending that pushes margin guidance below 30.5%. In this outcome, the shares could retrace toward the lower portion of the official 52-week trading range. Base CaseCentral scenario $59.3356% Matches the consensus meanRevenue and ARR growth remain in the high single digits, IAM adoption advances gradually, and fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin remains within the 30.5%-31.0% guidance range. Strong cash generation and repurchases provide support, but growth does not accelerate enough to justify a major re-rating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $90.0024% IAM continues gaining share of ARR beyond 12.6%, fiscal 2027 ARR growth exceeds the 8.25%-8.75% range, and operating margin remains near or above the 32.0% achieved in the first quarter. Broader integrations with major AI and enterprise platforms improve distribution and reinforce Docusign's role across the agreement lifecycle. Under this outcome, the shares could revisit approximately the upper end of the official 52-week trading range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |