Dnow Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Distribution Beta (adjusted)0.91 Intrinsic Value $19.31median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $15.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.8B Enterprise Value $3.1B Shares Outstanding 195.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary DNOW Inc. entered 2026 as a fundamentally transformed company following its $1.5 billion all-stock acquisition of MRC Global in November 2025. This combination creates a premier energy and industrial distributor with a significantly broader, less cyclical revenue base across midstream, gas utilities, and downstream maintenance. However, near-term execution risks remain elevated due to ERP integration friction and SAP migration challenges in MRC Global's U.S. operations, which have pressured margins and prompted management to suspend forward guidance. While long-term synergy targets of $70 million by year three are compelling, a 'Hold' rating is recommended until operational stabilization and margin recovery are clearly demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$18.00 Mean target$18.75 High · most bullish analyst$19.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $18.0015% ERP integration challenges persist, causing prolonged operational disruptions, customer service issues, and elevated SG&A expenses. Upstream market activity softens further, and the company fails to achieve its synergy milestones, leading to continued margin compression and cash flow pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.7560% Matches the consensus meanIntegration of MRC Global proceeds steadily but with some near-term margin pressure. U.S. revenues grow sequentially in the mid-to-high single-digit range, supported by steady gas utility upgrades and downstream turnaround activity. EBITDA margins gradually recover toward the 8% target as inventory normalization and cost synergies begin to materialize. Bull CaseUpside scenario $19.0025% Rapid resolution of ERP integration friction allows DNOW to fully capture its raised first-year cost synergy target of $23 million and accelerate toward its $70 million year-three target. Strong demand in natural gas infrastructure, LNG exports, and a rapid expansion into the high-margin data center vertical drive significant operating leverage and margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |