Disc Medicine Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.70 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $63.61Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2.4B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 39.7M diluted Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Disc Medicine is a highly promising clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on red blood cell biology, specifically heme biosynthesis and iron homeostasis. Despite receiving a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for bitopertin in early 2026, a successful Type A meeting with the FDA in June 2026 established a clear regulatory path: positive data from the fully enrolled Phase 3 APOLLO trial (topline expected Q4 2026) can serve as the basis for traditional approval by mid-2027. Backed by a robust cash position of $730.2 million (runway into 2029) and a diversified pipeline including DISC-0974 and DISC-3405, Disc Medicine represents a compelling multi-asset platform opportunity with significant near-term catalysts. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$79.00 Mean target$101.17 High · most bullish analyst$128.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $79.00 The Phase 3 APOLLO trial fails to establish a statistically significant clinical benefit on sunlight exposure outcomes, preventing traditional approval of bitopertin. Regulatory timelines are severely delayed, and the company is forced to rely solely on its earlier-stage pipeline (DISC-0974 and DISC-3405), leading to a significant downward re-rating of the stock. Base CaseCentral scenario $101.17 Matches the consensus meanThe Phase 3 APOLLO trial delivers positive topline results in Q4 2026, satisfying the FDA's requirements outlined in the CRL. Disc resubmits its NDA and receives traditional FDA approval for bitopertin in EPP by mid-2027. DISC-0974 continues to show durable anemia responses in myelofibrosis, and DISC-3405 demonstrates solid proof-of-concept, supporting steady pipeline progression. Bull CaseUpside scenario $128.00 The Phase 3 APOLLO trial meets its primary endpoints with strong statistical significance, showing a clear clinical relationship between PPIX lowering and sunlight exposure outcomes. The FDA grants traditional approval for bitopertin in mid-2027, triggering a highly successful commercial launch. Concurrently, DISC-0974 and DISC-3405 deliver outstanding Phase 2 data, establishing Disc as a dominant leader in hematology. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |