DigitalOcean Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure Beta (adjusted)1.40 Intrinsic Value $47.19median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$57based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $139.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 66% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-66%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.4B Enterprise Value $16.6B Shares Outstanding 122.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary DigitalOcean entered the second half of 2026 with accelerating growth: Q2 revenue rose 29%, AI customer ARR rose 212% to $234 million, and remaining performance obligations reached $894 million. The company also maintained a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin and positive adjusted free cash flow while expanding committed capacity. These operating signals support a favorable long-term view, but the August 28 official investor-relations quote of $111.21 already reflects substantial AI expectations. Execution against Q3 and full-year guidance, capacity delivery, and preservation of margins are therefore central to the risk-reward balance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$140.00 Mean target$175.21 High · most bullish analyst$200.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $140.0020% AI demand converts into revenue more slowly than expected, capacity constraints or deployment delays limit growth, and elevated infrastructure requirements compress margins or free cash flow. Failure to achieve the Q3 revenue guidance floor would undermine the acceleration thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $175.2155% Matches the consensus meanDigitalOcean delivers within its Q3 and FY2026 guidance ranges, AI customer ARR continues expanding, and adjusted EBITDA margin remains near the high-30% range as infrastructure investment increases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $200.0025% Revenue growth reaches or exceeds management's stated objective of at least 35% by Q4 2026 and progresses toward the stated ambition to exceed 50% in 2027. AI inference adoption, large annual commitments, longer contract duration, and timely capacity additions sustain rapid growth without a material margin breakdown. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |