Diebold Nixdorf Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $63.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $2.7B Shares Outstanding 35.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Diebold Nixdorf has successfully executed a post-restructuring turnaround, shifting its focus from low-margin hardware volume to high-margin software-led services and cash-recycling solutions. Backed by a lean operating model, sequential backlog growth, and a robust balance sheet with net leverage at 1.2x, the company is well-positioned to deliver strong free cash flow and return capital to shareholders via its active buyback program. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$95.00 Mean target$98.33 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $95.00 Long-term secular pressure from digital payments, cashless trends, and bank branch consolidation caps hardware demand. Elevated memory and DRAM input costs compress retail margins, while execution or competitive risks in shifting the mix toward software and services limit EBITDA margin expansion, keeping the stock near its post-restructuring floor. Base CaseCentral scenario $98.33 Matches the consensus meanThe company successfully delivers on its reaffirmed 2026 guidance, supported by its substantial $790M product backlog. Modest top-line growth of 1.5% to 3% is accompanied by disciplined execution of the LEAN program, yielding adjusted EBITDA of $510M-$535M and free cash flow of $255M-$270M, with steady share repurchases supporting EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.00 Accelerating global demand for advanced ATMs, cash recyclers, and branch automation solutions drives higher-margin service attachments. Expansion in retail self-checkout and AI-enabled Vynamic Smart Vision platforms, combined with localized manufacturing and cost streamlining, expands EBITDA margins toward 13% and drives valuation toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |